Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
